Adviser-to-client template: Insights for a Mid-Year Touchpoint
For financial advisers to use with clients. Feel free to copy, paste, then edit as desired.
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Mid-Year Outlook: Let’s Keep It Positive
I am writing to keep you informed of your portfolio’s progress. As we enter the back half of the year, you’ll have undoubtedly noticed interest rate pressures continuing to rise, which is meaningfully impacting sentiment.
We’re living in a period where many households continue to struggle from mortgage resets and inflation, but this is offset by a sizeable number of savers (especially retirees) who stand to benefit from the rising rates. From an investment perspective, the net effect so far, is that majority of global markets are still beating cash on a one, three, and five-year basis, according to Morningstar data to 20th June.
We appreciate that investors naturally want to surpass cash returns in all market conditions, but note that cash is effectively a risk-free asset, so this is easier said than done. Investing is about taking appropriate risks when there’s a reasonable expectation for reward. The reality is that investing involves periods of great returns and setbacks. Navigating these in any investment landscape requires a balance between conviction and diversification.
The good news is that your investment portfolio is positioned well leading into the second half of 2023, with a diversified investment mix that is positioned to deliver on your financial goals.
As far as the mid-year outlook goes, we always prefer to look at the long-term perspective first, and any near-term challenges second. In the long term, we have reason to be positive. For example, Morningstar continues to see many investment markets trading at levels that should help you to achieve your goals over time. Your portfolios are positioned toward areas of the market that Morningstar believes will deliver the best long-term returns for the risks being taken.
In the shorter term, we do note several key developments worthy of attention. For example, artificial intelligence (AI) is set to disrupt many businesses and will advance others. Related, we have a highly concentrated group of companies that are having an outsized impact, especially in the U.S. market. We also acknowledge the continued risks of an economic recession if interest rates continue to rise putting pressure on people’s spending.
Owning a portfolio that has several ways to generate returns but also an appropriate level of protection is especially important now, given some of the potential short-term headwinds and longer-term opportunities. With the benefit of hindsight, the direction of the economy will appear obvious, but that is never the case when making investing decisions in real time. A well-structured portfolio must therefore be able to cope with a wide variety of outcomes. This should help make the journey to your goals less stressful, and perhaps even enjoyable.
Therefore, I share three messages:
- First, if you need advice or a second opinion on any financial matter, please get in touch as we’d be delighted to help.
- Second, we continue to monitor your portfolio under the surface to ensure it remains fit for purpose and currently have no issues to report. If this changes, you’ll be the first to know.
- And last, but not least, it is a timely reminder to remember we’re investing to empower your long-term success, with a gradual and consistent approach that has stood the test of time.
Ultimately, it’s easy to overplay the significance of recent interest rate rises and think ‘this time it’s different’. What is particularly interesting is how quickly investment markets turn. We’ve been through worse before and remain positive for the long term.
As always, I’m very happy to explain further. Please let me know if you have any questions.
As noted previously, this document is intended to support your service proposition to clients and the commentary does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice and is supplied for information purposes only. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The value of investments may go down as well as up and an investor may not get back the amount invested. The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein are provided as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, but Morningstar makes no warranty, express or implied regarding such information. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use.
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